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There are a raft of U.S. unicorns — those valued at $1 billion or more — that are likely to go public in 2025, according to the PitchBook/NVCA Venture Monitor for the fourth quarter of 2024.
The folks at PitchBook have a VC exit predictor, a tool that leverages machine learning and PitchBook’s database of companies, financing rounds and investors to objectively assess a startup’s likelihood of having a successful exit.
On the PitchBook platform, VC-backed companies are scored with a percentage on the probability that they will be acquired, go public, not exit due to failure, or become self-sustaining. To present a clearer picture of the true exit value of the VC market, the researchers have added a proprietary extrapolation methodology currently used for undisclosed M&A transactions in our PE and Global M&A reports.
Nizar Tarhuni, EVP of research and market intelligence at PitchBook, said in a statement, “While 2024 saw a steady uptick in completed financings and the aggregate number of dollars invested – the proliferation of early-stage AI-focused transactions at hefty valuations masks a broader venture industry still facing corrective challenges.”
He said that, ultimately, the VC landscape is lacking meaningful exits, driven by a host of issues including buyer-seller valuation mismatches stemming from inflated rounds in previous vintages and regulatory headwinds impeding deal appetite at the larger part of the market.
“Our view for 2025 is cautiously optimistic. A more M&A and business friendly presence in Washington, coupled with more time for startups and investors to recalibrate expectations around valuations, deal structures and growth may help entice more capital to come off the sidelines,” Tarhuni said. “That said, fundraising may remain lukewarm, particularly as other pockets of the market seem to be gaining steam, competing for dollars in allocator’s alternatives buckets, ultimately favoring larger venture platforms and established managers.”
And Bobby Franklin, CEO at NVCA, said in a statement that, after a strong quarter with the highest investment levels since mid-2022, there’s a sense of cautious optimism for VCs and entrepreneurs heading into 2025.
“Changes in leadership at the FTC and DOJ could ease some liquidity challenges for portfolio companies, and changes at the SEC could right-size the regulatory burdens at firms,” he said. “With more VCs stepping into government roles and engaging actively on Capitol Hill, the venture industry has a unique opportunity to highlight the critical role of venture-backed companies in driving economic growth and maintaining American competitiveness.”
He said the tax bill currently making its way through Congress is especially significant, with potential to incentivize innovation, reinstate the R&D tax credit, and support the broader ecosystem.
Among the U.S. tech unicorns ranked by IPO probability, PitchBook predicts that Anduril, an aerospace and defense firm started by Oculus founder Palmer Luckey, as having a 97% chance of going public in 2025.
Another with gaming roots is Mythical Games, a Web3 gaming company headed by John Linden. The firm has a 97% chance of going public in 2025.
Others include Ayar Labs, Carbon, Databricks, EquipmentShare, Form Energy, GrubMarket, Mainspring, Sila and StockX. Those with a 96% chance of going public include Impossible Foods, Groq and SpaceX.
In 2024, the largest category of deal count by size was $1 million to $5 million raised, with 3,153 startups in that category. That’s down from 3,781 in 2023 and 5,310 in the peak year of 2021.
